Africa and the Energy Transition: Between Climate Pressure and Fossil Interests

As the planet commits to drastically cutting fossil fuels, Africa faces a strategic dilemma: fully exploit its oil and gas resources in order to develop… or enter an energy transition that it neither caused nor truly chose.

⛏️ 1. Africa facing an imposed transition?

Africa contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it is among the first victims of climate change: desertification, rising seas, cyclones, food insecurity.

Even so, international pressure is mounting for the continent to slow down or stop its oil and gas projects, in the name of global carbon neutrality (Net Zero 2050, COP summits, the Paris Agreement…).

❗ A glaring paradox:

• Africa is rich in oil, gas and coal
• Yet 600 million Africans still have no access to electricity
• The continent needs energy to develop, industrialise and create jobs

🛢️ 2. Fossil resources: a brake or a lever for development?

📈 The strategic role of oil and gas:

• Major sources of revenue for several states (up to 80% of the national budget)
• Drivers of foreign currency, employment and foreign investment
• Still under-exploited potential: deepwater offshore areas, frontier basins, liquefied natural gas (LNG)

🎯 Natural gas: a transition fuel?

• Cleaner than coal or diesel
• Ideal for large-scale electricity generation
• Backed by institutions (World Bank, EU) as a bridge to renewables

Example: Mozambique is betting on LNG to finance its structural transformation
Senegal and Mauritania are counting on Tortue Ahmeyim to fund education and health

⚖️ 3. Donor pressure vs energy sovereignty

❌ Challenges:

• The World Bank, the IMF and the European Union restrict or attach conditions to fossil fuel financing
• A growing number of climate lawsuits: complaints against EACOP (Uganda–Tanzania), projects blocked in Senegal and DR Congo
• Fear of a “punitive transition” for countries of the Global South

✅ African responses:

• Africa calls for a just transition, adapted to its realities
• Some leaders (e.g. Macky Sall, William Ruto) reject an “imposed” vision of development
• A determination to control the pace and terms of the transition

🔋 4. Where does Africa stand on renewables?

Considerable potential:

• 🌞 Solar power: the continent receives 60% of the world’s sunlight
• 🌬️ Wind: North Africa, coastal regions, highlands
• 💧 Hydropower: Congo, Ethiopia, Zambia
• 🌋 Geothermal: the Rift Valley (Kenya, Ethiopia)

Progress:

• Morocco: an African leader with Noor (Africa’s largest solar plant)
• South Africa: massive solar and wind projects to move away from coal
• Kenya: over 80% of electricity already renewable

Limits:

• Low storage capacity (batteries, grids)
• Lack of local investment
• High cost and long implementation times

🌐 5. Towards an integrated African strategy?

Continental initiatives under way:

• African Union Green Recovery Action Plan (2021–2027)
• African Development Bank – Desert to Power (Sahel)
• Calls for an African Energy Investment Fund
• A coalition of oil-producing states to defend the responsible exploitation of hydrocarbons

Stakes:

• Finding the balance between short-term development (jobs, electricity)
  and long-term sustainability
• Avoiding being shut out of the global carbon credit market
• Not missing the technological revolution in clean energy

✅ Conclusion

Africa cannot be held responsible for a warming it did not cause. It does, however, have a historic opportunity to define its own energy path: by developing its fossil resources responsibly, while building sustainable and well-adapted alternatives.

The energy transition cannot be imported or imposed. It must be African in its means, its goals and its priorities.